Wednesday 7 November 2012

BO Predictions of JTHJ and SOS (Independent and dependent)


BO Predictions of JTHJ and SOS (Independent and dependent)

A) INDEPENDENT:

Conditions:
JAB TAK HAI JAAN
SON OF SARDAAR



Opening day
15.75
6.5
Wednesday
27.25
13.5




IF WOM IS GOOD





Thursday-Sunday
68 (15.25+14.25+18+20)
43(9.75+9.25+11+13)
Week 1 (10 days)
145 (weekdays- 34)
85 (weekdays- 22)
Lifetime
194
118




IF WOM IS MIXED:





Thursday-Sunday
62 (14.25+13.25+16.5+18)
37 (8.5+8+9.5+11)
Week 1 (10 days)
132 (Weekdays- 29)
74 (Weekdays- 17)
Lifetime
159
95




IF WOM IS BAD





Thursday-Sunday53 (12.75+12+13.5+14.75)
34 (8+7.75+8.5+9.75)
 Week 1 (10 days)
 118 (Weekdays- 22)
68 (Weekdays- 14) 
 Lifetime
138 
81 









B) DEPENDENT :-

Case 1: JTHJ has BAD wom, and SOS has GOOD wom,
Case 2: JTHJ has GOOD wom, and SOS has BAD wom,

 CASE 1
 JTHJ has BAD wom
 SOS has GOOD wom



 Opening day
 15.75
 6.5
 Opening day
27.25 
 13.5






 Thursday- Sunday
52 (13+11.75+13.25+14) 
42(8.75+8.75+11+13.5) 
 Week 1 (10 days)
116    (Weekdays-21)
87 (Weekdays-25) 
 Lifetime
129 
 127






 CASE 2
 JTHJ has GOOD wom
 SOS has BAD wom



 Opening day
 15.75
 6.5
 Wednesday
 27.25
 13.5






 Thursday-Sunday
  65 (14.5+14.25+17.25+19) 
 33 (8+7.25+8.25+9.5)
 Week 1
 147 (Weekdays- 39)
 70 (Weekdays- 17)
 Lifetime
 198 
 84









NOTE :-

1. All above figures are in crores.
2. WOM = Word Of Wouth
3. It takes time to for WOM to spread, so first two days are same in each condition.
4. Dependent predictions doesn't have predictions for Mixed Wom. Therefore, the middle zone between Good and Bad Wom, is Mixed Wom.




























4 comments:

  1. Your Tuesday to Wednesday jump is gigantic. Don't you think that your Wednesday figure is unrealistic?

    Plus, considering the competition, even your first day seems somewhat out of reach.

    All above comments for JTHJ.

    ReplyDelete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ankit Bhattacharjee-

    There is always huge jump seen on second day of diwali be it for any film. In past, Golmaal 3 saw 50% jump and Action replayy saw 100% jump. Even Ra.One had 45-50% jump. And these are mere predictions, ups and downs are surely going to be there.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Aashakaran Dhillon- The market capacity is difficult to gauge. Remember ETT was released o 3300 screens where as SOS and JTHJ together are releasing on 4200+ screens. There is a huge difference.

    ReplyDelete